Poker News

James A. McKenna, PhD

Playing cards can be hard work. Working smart is playing worthwhile hands and it’s betting on hands that will pay the most returns. Playing hard means playing against the odds and playing hands that are either not likely to show up or won’t pay that much if they do.

All poker players are chasing a hand at some point. Some are chasing hard and others are chasing smart. Betting on the come is not just something that happens in craps. In Texas Hold’Em, you have the first two cards to decide to bet on the come (unless you are the big blind). The flop comes and you are an instant winner or you are continuing to bet on the come. This is where you become a working hard or a working smart player.

Here are some questions to answer that will reveal whether you work hard or smart.

1) Suppose you make middle pair on the flop and someone bets before you. Chances are good that the other player has the top pair. You could stay to outrun with your lower pair if you got a set (one more of that pair). Would you stay in?

2) You have one card that’s higher than any other cards on the flop. Everyone bets. Would you chase, hoping to get your Ace or King paired? Suppose you stay and on the turn, it’s still another low card. Someone bets. Would you call?

3) You come in with two connectors above seven. Would you play this in any position? So, you play this and then the flop is an open-ended straight. Two people before you bet and call. Would you bet orraise the bets on the come?

4) After the flop, you are chasing an open-ended straight and a flush draw. How long would you play this hand and would you semi-bluff with it or just call as the flop unfolds? If you know nothing about odds and you are playing blindly, you are working harder than you should be in poker. Let’s look at the odds for each of the above scenarios.

1) Middle Pair. If you flop middle pair and stay in to outrun the top pair, you are working too hard. The chance of you making trips is one in eleven. You only have two outs and an 8% chance of making trips. So, you might as well just throw your chips into a wishing well.

2) One Over-card. If you are holding an Ace or a King, a lot of bettors have made the pot odds go up. If also has made the odds of two small pairs or a possible straight draw likely to be present. It’s time to throw this hand away. Since the pot is larger, some players will stay in to see the turn. You only have three outs and a 13% chance that your card will show up. In $3/6, the size of the pot would have to be at least $84 for you to stay since the odds are 14:1 that you won’t get that over-card.

3) Playing connectors. You have more outs with this type of come bet. First of all, if you have high connectors, you could get top pair as well as chase the straight. For the open-ended straight that you flopped, you have 8 outs and a 32% chance of making this straight. So, although it’s not a sure thing, it’s working smart to play connectors-especially if they are big ones.

4) Suited connectors. Your odds go rapidly up here. After the flop, you have a chance to get both a straight and a flush. This means that you have 15 outs and a 54% chance of making this chase. There are more questions we could ask. For more details on the odds of chasing different hands, look for my book coming out in June, 2005.

James A. McKenna, PhD., has been a practicing individual and group therapist for over thirty-five years. His knowledge of human behavior combined with over thirty years of gaming experience gives him a unique perspective on the psychology of the gamer. His book, “Beyond Tells-Power Poker Psychology,” will be published soon by Gambling Times.

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