Poker News

The Flop comes A-A-2

Often we are so focused on one thing that we miss an opportunity. That’s true in the game of poker as well as in life. Here’s an illustration I presented to my advanced poker class at the Claude Pepper Sr. Citizens Center.

You are in a late positionand are dealt a pair of 8s. There are no raises preflop with three opponents in the pot; you call, hoping to catch a third 8 on the flop. The flop comes down-Your first reaction: Oh, shucks, I missed! I didn’t make a set of 8s.

Don’t be surprised; after all, the odds are 7-to-1 against it.

But look again: Two aces on the board! That means it’s not likely that one of your three opponents has an ace. (After all, with only two other aces in the deck, there is only a small chance that an opponent has an ace. Besides, most players with A-K, AQ, or A-J probably would have raised preflop. Since there were no raises, it’s even less likely there is an ace out against you.)

Everyone checks to you. Your first inclination is to check along and see the turn for free. If you do that, you will have missed a great opportunity to take this pot…

Study the Board: Notice that no one could have four-to-a-flush; a straight-draw is not likely; and, most important, the other upcard is a deuce. That means your pair of 8s is an overpair-since we have discounted the pair of aces. What about an opponent holding a pair of deuces in the hole? The chance of that happening is about 220-to-1 against it. What’s more, if an opponent had a higher pocket pair, he likely would have raised preflop. Yep, your pair of 8s probably is the best hand at this point.

Your Opportunity: So this is your opportunity to bet, hoping to force out your opponents. Consider the likely consequences if you merely checked and everyone gets to see the turn: With only two 8s still in the deck, you have less than one chance out of 23 of making a set on the turn.

What about your opponents? Let’s assume that there are four cards in their hands that are higher than an 8; that’s reasonable. (Indeed, they could hold six higher cards - overcards.) It’s six times more likely that one of them will make a pair higher than your 8s on the turn. If one opponent holds two suited cards, he might make four-to-a-flush on the turn; and then stay to see the river. Even if he didn’t connect for the flush, he could easily make a pair higher than your 8s. Therefore, it would be very much to your advantage to force out as many opponents as possible before the turn.

So Carpe Diem!: Seize the opportunity and make the postflop bet - rather than just going along with the check-all-around, hoping for the third 8. If they all fold, that’s fine: You have taken a small pot. That’s a lot better than losing a larger pot. What if one of your opponents elects to call your post-flop bet? With only one opponent still in, your pocket 8s has a much better chance of holding up to take the pot at the end. Depending on the turn card and your assessment of the remaining opponent, you might check or bet. But, in any case, by betting after the flop in this case, you will have taken the opportunity to turn a probable losing hand into a likely winner. . .

. . . So readers, what’s YOUR opinion?

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