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Sam Mudaro: Omaha Guru

Today we will look at how often a low will get there when the flop comes down with a single or two low cards. We will also look at which low gets there, that is the nut low vs. the 2nd, 3rd or other low. The charts below reflect the simulation results of running each listed rainbow flop 1 million times and analyzing the results. Where possible I chose hands that preclude making a straight. The first chart details the results of a flop containing a single low card.

Reading the chart from right to left, with a flop of A-9-K, a low will be made 14.8% of the time. There will be more than one low 4 tenths of a percent of the time. Lows, other than the nut, 2nd nut or 3rd nut will get there 7.2% of the time. The probability of the nut low getting there increases as the rank of the single low card increases. The overall probability of a low increases similarly. This may be attributable to less counterfeiting, (duplicating the low card(s) in your hand). Players are more prone to play an ace, deuce or three rather than a 6-7-8 for low.

Lets a look at flops containing two low cards. With two low cards on the flop the chance you will be up against a low increase almost five fold. Again as the rank of the low card increase so does the low probability.

The chart below contains two low cards with one card always an ace. The range of increase in overall low winners is less dramatic then in the previous chart by almost 10%. Ranging only from 52.4% to 56.5% as compared to the previous chart of 52.4% to 66.3%. The range of nut lows is also less, with an increase of less than 2% ranging from 18.3% to 20.1%.

So what have we learned? With only one low card on the flop, the low will only get there on average 13.5% of the time. This is good news for the high. Of the 13.5% of the time the low does get there, the high will split and lose some of the hands to a low straight. Put another way, a high hand consisting of a straight or better is superior. When you hold the nut high hand of a flush or better and are last to act, always raise. You are guaranteed at least half the pot without the possibility of being quartered. With two low cards on the flop, the low will get there over 50% of the time. Next time we will look at flush draws and the effect of holding additional cards of the same suit.

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