Poker News

Sam Mudaro: Omaha Guru

Last time I examined how the following hand types won; a high only, a low and a scooper when the flop came with low, middle and high connectors. This week I will take a look at which high hands win with these types of flops. I will limit my study to low and high connectors only. Due to space requirement I purposely left out the middle connectors. There were no real surprises there.

For this simulation I ran each flop through 2 million simulations and averaged the winning hands from all ten players at the table. I did this to eliminate the effect of position and individual playing styles. Each flop was set up to be triple suited (TS), double suited (DS) and nonsuited (NS). The table consists of predominantly tight players in a $10/20 game.

An examination of the chart below will reveal that when three cards of the same suit appear on the flop the most likely hand to win high is a flush. This is true for all combinations. Do note that the lowest flush win percents occur when an Ace is part of the flop. One may believe that the average player would reason that since the Ace is out there my King or Queen high flush may be good. After all doesn’t everybody place Ace any low? It is precisely that logic that causes the percentages to increase! If you are holding the Ace and any low card suited, you are hoping for a flush draw in addition to your low draw. Remember the best starting hand is A- 2-A-3 double suited. Would you play Q-7 hoping for a flush draw?

After a flush, the next most frequent win percentage is a straight. The straight dominates second position except for the A-K-Q. There are at least a couple of things going on here. First, there is only one way to flop a straight with this hand and that is with a J-T. Yes I know you can hold a 9-T and draw for a J. But would you call a bet with it? Some of you are thinking that the A-2-3 is the same kind of hand as far as making a straight is concerned. The key difference is there are 3 low cards on the table. More people enter the pot with low cards then they do with high cards. People will play A-3-6 and even A-4-6. If you convert the last two to the equivalent high they would be A-J-9 and A-Q-9 virtually unplayable unless your fourth card enables a decent low draw. Looking at the K-Q-J non-suited you will see a straight almost 55% of the time. People will play A-T, low, low.

Another interesting situation develops with the royal and straight flush with respect to the high flops. It would almost seem logical that a royal flush would more often be made with an A-K-Q flop then with a K-Q-J flop. The numbers support just the opposite. In fact the K-Q-J will result in a royal flush 3.9 times more often than the A-K-Q. A straight flushwill be made over 11 times more frequently. The answer to this mystery is simple. People play Aces. It is easier to play A-T, low, low then K-T, low, low.

The percentages for a full house are greater for those hands containing an ace or good low draw then those that do not. The situation is the same for 2 pair.

Next time I will divert from my normal repertoire of starting hands and starting flops and begin a series on how to proceed after a flop of x-x-x-? I will begin with: Should you continue with a flush draw, (4 to a flush) when a pair flops? I welcome your questions on how to proceed with a particular flop when you hold a particular hand.

So what have we learned? You are more likely to see a flush with three suited connectors when an Ace does not flop. You are more likely to see a straight with three connectors without an Ace then you are with an Ace.

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