Poker News

Richard Burke

The stranger bought a rack of white chips and settled into the four seat at my $4-8 HoldEm table on that Thursday afternoon in early spring. He introduced himself, “Mike,” he said, “from Odessa.” Mike-from-Odessa played mostly in home games and on the Internet and wanted to try his skills in a brick-and-mortar poker room. He had heard about bad-beatjackpots and asked how big ours that day and what did he need to have to qualify, Aces-Full beaten, or what?

My local poker room didnt have a bad-beat jackpot. It was rumored it had applied for one. We regulars had discussed it many times around the table, and all but one hoped the Gaming Commission would disapprove the casinos application. From their point of view, raking an extra dollar per pot removed $32 more from their stacks every hour, in addition to the $128+ per hour for the house rake and dealer tokes…and then probably some tourist would sit down, play about six hands and win it!

From my point of view, a bad-beat jackpot, especially a big one, say $50 thousand or more, would lure marginal and new players into the poker room so we regulars could, ah, teach them Texas HoldEm. With a huge bad-beat jackpot, the HoldEm tables would be filled with starry-eyed optimists seeking El Dorado. Some poker rooms require that Aces-Full-of-Jacks lose to a better hand, that both hole cards play, and that three or more Aces cant be among the five community cards. I would require just that Quads lose to a better hand and that both hole cards play in any Straight Flush.

That any deal would have Quads losing to Quads means, for examples, that the community cards must look like 7s-7h-2s-2d-Ac and two players have pocket Sevens and Deuces, or like 7s-7h-2s-2d-2c and one player have pocket Sevens and another player have the case Deuce. The combined chance for any Quads losing to any Quads is about once in 102 thousand deals. The chance that any Quads would lose a Straight Flush using both hole cards is less likely, about once in 134 thousand deals, and the chance that a Straight Flush would lose to a higher one using four hole cards is about once in a million deals. (If youre interested in the hairy details, then check out my website in a month or so.) The combined chance is about once in 55 thousand deals at a ten-player HoldEm table. Mike observed that the chance at El Dorado would entice players to play starting hands like 3h-2h, 2c- 2h, and 2d-Ad even more often than they do now, and also stay in hands longer, hoping for runner-runner miracles. (Yes.)

Mike asked if the odds meant that a bad-beat jackpot using my criteria would be around $55 thousand. I informed Mike although thered be a 50-50 chance that the jackpot would be won within the next 38 thousand deals at any ten-player HoldEm table, over the long run my bad-beat jackpot would average $54,808. Also, I wouldnt mess with backup jackpots. Id just set the jackpot at some easily remembered number and leave it there. The casino can afford to take a long-term perspective and bankroll the poker rooms jackpot. Any extra money could be additional contribution, or spent on special events and promotions.

Id set my El Dorado at $50,000. That would fetch ‘em in droves.

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