Poker News

Richard Burke

Fred scooped a $194 pot. Not the biggest pot on that Friday afternoon in late winter at a $4-8 Hold’Em table in my local card room, but Fred was pleased that his theory worked! Fred explained that he had played small cards because there were so many callers pre-Flop that the big cards were “used up,” and his small cards had a better chance.

In a half-Kill pot, Fred had called for an additional $8 with 5d-2d in the Big Blind. Seven-handed they saw the dealer flop Kc-Ts-5h. Even though he had based his call on the enemy’s holding the bigs, Fred bet right out with bottom Pair. Four called. The Turn was the 8c. Fred bet $12 and the same four called. The River was the 2h. Again, Fred bet out. One opponent called. Fred showed and the other mucked. What did I think of that!

He had a 10% chance for a Flush-draw or a Flush on the Flop. His two-gap connectors had about a 5% chance for a Straight-draw or a Straight on the Flop. An unpaired hand always has a 3% chance for Two Pairs or Trips on the Flop. Including the tiny chance of flopping a Full House, Quads, or a Straight Flush, his hand had almost one chance in five to improve nicely. Since he could count on pot odds of $8 for $80 after the rake and toke-to-be, his pre-Flop call was correct no matter where the big cards were, and besides, the enemy don’t always hold the big ones, they too call with small Pairs and suited connectors.

Pre-Turn, Fred had five outs, about one chance in nine to connect on the Turn or River. His betting bottom Pair was aggressive, but not a bad play because he represented Kings. If they had all folded (unlikely), then it would have been a great bet. With four callers, his pot odds were very good, $6 for $110, much better than his cards of 5 in 47. His post-Turn bet was risky, but it turned out well for him because no one raised and he had the same four callers, making the pot odds $12 for $170, plenty to draw to the River.

I asked if it wouldn’t have been better to check the Turn and then call when someone bet, because if anyone holding a hand like AcTc had raised on the Turn, then he would have to fold or make a crying call. Also, he could have checked the River, angling to raise if anyone else bet.

Fred was quiet for a while. He asked was it true or not that his small cards were more likely to improve when there were lots of callers pre-Flop. A little, I answered, but even if eighteen of the twenty Honor cards were in the nine enemy hands, there would still be twenty-six cards that could flop which would be higher or different from his. Had he really expected his bottom Pair to win with all those pre-Flop callers? He had to hit his hand twice to have a good chance to win that pot.

Fred was quiet again. He should have checked the Turn, he said, because with all those high cards out there, he risked having to call a raise with bottom Pair and only three outs. Then when the 2h hit, he could have check-raised on the River.

“Right,” I said, “good thinking.”

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