Poker News

Dr. Scott Aigner

There was a recent discussion at a forum where a question asked if tournament poker or ring games were more profitable. Surprisingly the poll revealed that almost 70% of the respondents thought that tournament poker was the more profitable venture. I disagree with the majority and after my column you will understand why this is a myth and not the fact.

First off, there is definitely a difference in how one plays in a tournament vs. playing in ring games. The two games are like night and day. Very few poker players can successfully master both. Some players will do better in tournaments in their life than they could ever do in a ring game. Certainly, the opposite is also true where a certain type of player will do better in ring games. Look at the question again though. It did not ask if a certain individual would do better in one venue or the other. The question asked which is the most profitable.

Daniel Negreanu has my vote as the best tournament player in the world today. A few years ago, he stated his expected value (e.v.) in a tournament was around 2. That meant he made approximately $1,000 for every $1,000 tournament he entered on average. This averaged to be around $100.00 per hour for him at the time. Daniel had the best record in tournament poker with more wins in a 3-year period than anyone else when he made this statement.

I suspect that Daniel’s e.v. is actually much higher than he used back then. Howard Lederer’s opinion a few years ago on Phil Helmuth’s e.v. in the WSOP 10k World Championship was around 4. This is the highest e.v. I have ever seen for a specific tournament player. I will use this number for Daniel to show how even this high of an e.v. makes tournaments less profitable for one of the best tournament players in the world who can also win in ring games.

If Daniel played in 20 tournaments of 10k or higher each year his expected earn would be $30,000 per tournament or $600,000 per year. This does even account for the number of hours he would have to play, the fact that he cannot leave until he has busted out of the tournament, or his expenses for his travels. Now let’s compare this to a ring game of $1000-$2000 limits (Daniel does play in even higher limits than this). If Daniel won just one small bet per hour for 30 hours a week, he would make $1.5 million per year. This is without any of the headaches of traveling, playing with less volatility that tournaments have, and allows him to come and go as he pleases in a game.

If you are serious about becoming a winning poker player then I suggest that you learn to win in a ring game where you can play more frequently without waiting or traveling. You have more freedom to pick and chose when you play as well as whom you play against, and where you have less short term luck and a lower risk of ruin. If you enjoy playing in tournaments and understand they are high risk and low reward outcomes in the long run for most of the players then certainly have some fun and enjoy. I recommend that you don’t use the grocery money or the mortgage payment on your house to play in them.

Visit Dr. Scott Aigner at his site: Poker Strategy Forum

Filed under: Poker News