Poker News

James A, McKenna, PhD.

The most valuable ability in poker is often the least discussed. The element of surprise is the “sine qua non” tool of a successful player. It’s the ability to avoid telegraphing what you have, the talent of hiding in the bushes, the wisdom of letting others do your betting, and the finesse of setting successful traps for your opponents. In the end, he or she who surprises the most will usually leave with the most chips.

A lot has been written about tells and bluffing. Little, though, has been written about reading opponents and how to know when a person is setting up a surprise for you at show-down. Generally, the more surprised you are, the worse you are at reading your opponents. Similarly, the least surprised players are the best at playing “hide and seek” and figuring out what other players have before they attempt to surprise them.

Players good at surprising others will use “telegraphing” to their advantage. First of all, if they have a strong hand, they will get you to thinking that their hand is weaker than yours. They seldom “telegraph” their hands. Secondly, they will use “telegraphing” to bluff or mislead you into thinking their hand is strong when it isn’t. For example, in a no-limit game of Texas Hold’em, a player called a big bet with top pair and a small kicker (Kings and Seven unsuited). The original bettor had top pair and a strong kicker (Kings with a Queen unsuited). After the river, the bettor checked (concerned that the caller had two pair or a better kicker). The caller (with the weaker kicker) went all-in. The original bettor folded to this semi-stone cold bluff. Although the “all-in” was not called, he showed his King/seven when the original bettor showed his folded King/Queen. This was using “telegraphing” to surprise an opponent with the worst hand that won.

Hiding and letting others do your betting is another effective way to surprise opponents. For example, a player flops two medium pairs (7’s & 9’s). He slow plays to see if anyone wants to bet the top pair (Kings). When there are no bets, this player checks again and this time gets a bet. The player “in the bushes” jumps out and raises the bet to trap the bettor who later is surprised to see two pairs to his one pair.

It’s not possible to trap another player unless you have succeeded in first deceiving him or her about what you are holding. Trapping is where the art of surprising prevails. Usually, though, the surprise comes at the switch when the trapper comes over the top of the bettor. When a player bets after being checked to, the original checker is surprised. When he loses the hand or folds, he’s not really surprised; but, it’s too late. In my book, Beyond Tells, I discuss this type of “switching” using principals of game theory with a game formula that can be applied to poker.

For instance: B + P = D ? F ? Payoff. It takes a Bluff (B) plus a Pigeon (P) to have a Drop (D). The above Drop was when a pigeon-player bets into the bluffer’s check. This led to the Fold (F) accompanied by the pigeon’s surprise. The resulting Payoff (P) comes to the bluffer in the form of winning the pot and feeling superior. The Pigeon gets the payoff of feeling kicked and earns some whining rights.

So, perhaps poker is an adult form of childhood games of “hide and seek,” “Kick the Can,” or NIGYSOB (”Now I’ve Got You, you Surprised Old Buddy”). In the final analysis, poker is a license to deceive, mislead, and surprise unsuspecting opponents. Those who are least surprised can tell who’s telling the truth and who isn’t. If you are often surprised, you are probably the table pigeon.

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