Poker News

George Epstein

A drawing hand must connect to become a likely winner at the showdown. Examples are four cards to a flush or an open-ended straight. You need just one more card to make your hand. Certainly, there are hands that opponents might catch that will beat your flush or straight, but those are relatively rare. Most often, yourflush or straight will be the best hand.

Our question today: When should you raise after flopping such a drawing hand?

Figure the Outs and the Odds: With four-to-a-flush, there are now nine cards (13 - 4 = 9) that will make your hand. These are your nine “outs.” After the flop, there remain two cards to be dealt on the board - two chances for you to make it. Thus, you have nine chances out of the 47 cards (52 - 5 = 47) remaining in the deck to make your flush on the turn. If not, then you have nine chances out of 46 cards (52 - 6) to make it on the river. Add these together, and you have better than one chance out of three to make the flush. (Although a little less likely - with eight outs, the same applies to making a straight after the flop, when you have four-to-a-straight open at both ends.)

On the average, in the long run, you will connect about one out of three such hands - and (likely) win the pot, and lose two out of three times. Thus the odds against you are approximately 2-to-1. Knowing those odds can help you determine how best to play your hand on the flop for maximum profit. . .

Should I Raise After the Flop?: Since you have not yet made your hand, generally you would not want to invest more than you need to stay in the hand. So, usually you should just check - or call if anyone else bets.

But there are situations when it would be to your advantage to raise after the flop. With odds against you of 2-to-1, you will break even in the long run on all bets if there are two opponents staying in against you. Thus, if there are three or more staying in the pot, you can expect a profit on any bets you make at that point. We call this profit our “expected value” or EV. In the long run, with three opponents in the pot, for every dollar you “invest,” you can expect a net gain of $0.33. That’s a 33-percent return on your investment (ROI) - great! Two opponents is a break-even situation.

Raise if. . . : So you can see why you are in a good situation to raise if an opponent has bet after the flop and two or more others call his bet. Usually, a player who has bet on the flop will call a raise. He may be “protecting his investment;” or, he may believe that the size of the pot warrants a call. In your own case, the raise represents an investment. In this situation, in the long run, it will pay off with increased profits - 33 percent of whatever you bet/raise with three opponents calling. (Greater profit if more than three opponents stay in.).

And Then. . : If you make your flush (straight) on the turn, continue to bet (or raise) but be cautious if you are raised and the board is paired. (Someone could have a full house.) And, yes, there is always the possibility that an opponent has a higher flush than you; that is much less likely if you stayed in pre-flop with a hand that met our starting criteria (as explained in my hold’em algorithm booklet). . . . So readers, what’s YOUR opinion?

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