Poker News

Sam Mudaro is the Omaha Guru

Today I will analyze an actual hand that I played at the final table of a limit Omaha High-Low tournament. Let me set the stage for you. I was in the big blind with the blinds at $1,500 and $3,000. There were 9 players left at the table. I was low in the chip count with $6,800 in chipsranking me about 8th. The small blind in last chip position called “all in”. He did not have enough chips to complete the call. I held the following hand: Qd Qs 6h Td. Everyone folded to the button, who limped in with about twice as many chips as I had. The three of us saw the flop Jd 6f 9d. I checked and the big blind bet $3,000. The question here is should I call or fold? Here was my logic.

If I called and lost and the small blind lost, I would still move up one position. If I won I would more than double up and be in a comfortable chip position. If I didn’t play the hand I would be left with enough chips to get through one round of blinds. The person with the next best chip position was a good tournament player and could have easily out lasted me in blinds. I had an over pair and a decent flush draw with no low draw. If I were not in the big blind I would have mucked the hand. I put my opponent on top pair with a poor low draw. I figured if he had a better low draw he would have raised preflop. The turn brought a 7s. The river was a 5c. My opponent turned over Js 2a 4f 7d and won the pot with two pair and sent me home with an eightplace finish. The small blind mucked his hand and never revealed what it was.

Did I make the right play in calling? Should my decision have been the same if I put my opponent on 2 pair? To analyze this I ran two heads up simulation assigning each player the same starting hands. I forced the flop as it came down and in the second simulation I forced the turn card. To simulate the tournament allin situation I set the software so that each player would stay till the river. I completely disregarded the small blind. Here are the results

Based on this chart I made the right decision to call. I was a better than 2 to 1 favorite. This is true even considering I would have to split the pot with my opponent 26% of the time when he made a low. But what should I have done if I knew my opponent had or would make two pair. If I knew my opponent had two pair or better I simply would not have called. But lets see how the numbers change when my opponent makes two pair on the turn:

The tables do turn and I am the underdog but not by much. I still have the flush draw and if the board pairs other than the jack or 7, I make a higher 2 pair. Notice that I am forced to give up another 7.9% to the low. Could this be what turned the table? That is another analysis that may be worth looking into. I do not consider a flop with a single low card, a low draw.

Before the turn I would make the winning two pair 11.3% and lose to two pair 2.2% of the time. Given the 7 on the turn the numbers change to 7.5% and 40% respectively. Before the turn I would make my straight 22.3%, my flush 22.6% and a straight flush 8.9% of the time. Given the turn my percentages drop to 3.9%, 1.1% and 0.1% respectively.

Next time I will expand upon this scenario and consider what would happen if I was up against two pair from the get go. So what have we learned? Flopping an over pair to your opponents pair combined with a flush and straight draw, when heads up is a playable hand. This is especially true if there is only one low card on the board.

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