Poker News

Sam Mudaro, Omaha Guru

Today I will further analyze my decision to continue to play [Qd] [Qs] [6h] [9d] after a flop of [Jd] [6c] [9d] while my opponent was holding [Js] [2h] [4c] [7d]. Last time we determined I made the correct decision toplay if I put my opponent on a pair of jacks and a back door low draw.

One of the questions I raised last time was: What would happen if there were no low? To answer this I kept the flop the same and forced a high card on the turn, eliminating any low possibility. There were only 5 high cards, exclusive of the ambidextrous ace to choose from. I ran all of them just to be sure. Here are the results:

My gut feeling was correct. Without a low possibility after the flop and I am a tremendous favorite. The only time I lose is when my opponent flops a set of jacks. It is the only high card that helps my opponent. I win on average $74.56 and lose $17.54 for a net of $57.02. The other situation I was curious about was: What would happen if my opponent flopped two pair? My gut feeling here would be to muck the hand. To test this I replaced the 9d on the flop withthe 7s. The results were abysmal for my hand as shown below.

According to the chart when my opponent flops two pair I should muck my hand. Or should I? Lets take a closer look at what I did by replacing that 9d with a 7s. I gave my opponent two pair, and took away my flush and openended straight draws. A triple whammy taking me from a net gain of $8.60, to a loss of $22.53. What would happen if we kept the 9d and relinquished my pair of 6’s?

I must admit I was a little surprised at these results. By giving up my pair of 6’s and maintaining my flush draw and straight draw I retain my advantage. So what is going on her? Most of it may be summed up with two words, “low draws”. The first chart showed the effect of eliminating the low draw entirely. By replacing the 9d with a low card we increased the probability of a low, as there are now two low cards on the flop. The probability for a winning low given the flops listed above, are 16.9%, 16.9% and 14.7%. This is based on simulation and not mathematical probability. Given the flop of Jd 6f 7s the low will get there 45.4% of them time, almost triple.

If you read my previous article you know I said I would have mucked my hand had I known my opponent flopped 2 pair. The results presented above indicate that would have been an incorrect decision. I would still be favored to win even when my opponent flopped 2 pair! This is true as long as I retain the flush and straight draws. Whether my opponent flopped a pair or two pair shouldn’t have effected my decision to call. When my opponent does pick up that low draw either on the flop or turn it is costly to me. The simple reason being: I am giving up half the pot, which takes a big toll on the net win per hand.

So what have we learned? A high drawing hand with an over pair, when drawing to a flush and straight, is better then flopping two pair especially if there is no low draw.

You can incorporate this into your game by being more aggressive with your high hand or high draw when only one card to a low flops. When there are no low cards you must be careful and may only want to raise with the best high or high draw.

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