Poker News

Richard Burke

Hakim has a rosy disposition, a ready smile, and jes’ loves to play Omaha/8. Omaha/8 players are typically an optimistic lot, but Hakim’s optimism gets him into trouble because he sees riches in nearly every hand. While waiting for a seat in our local card room on a Tuesday afternoon in late winter, Hakim complained that everyone knew to play for theLow, but it seemed to him that when he did, often he’d be counterfeited, the Low wouldn’t come, or he’d be quartered.

Had Hakim read Sam Mudaro’s Poker Player articles on Omaha/8? He had, but he argued that with the nut Low then he’d always win something. I began to explain that Mudaro had simulated millions of Omaha/8 deals, when it dawned on me that although he’d like to win, Hakim comes to our card room to play.

Hakim was stunned when I pointed out that when aiming for the nut Low half of the pot with a hand like [Ah]-[2d]-[9s]-[Td], he would be counterfeited more than half the time. (The probability is 0.497 that neither of his two low cards would be counterfeited by the River.)

Because the likelihood of being counterfeited is so high with only two low-ranking cards, Hakim needs another low card. Even [Ah]-[2d]-[2s]-[Td] or [Ah]-[2d]-[2s]-[2c] are better starts than a bare A-2, because his holding an extra Deuce or two reduces his chances of being counterfeited and/or quartered.

I asked if he were counterfeited, would he continue with a bare A-2? He would because if there were three or more other ranks of low cards by the River, then either of his cards might be live and he might still win some of the Low half. I told him he wouldn’t win much, very often. Although he might luck out with a live, low card when the others were going for High or were also counterfeited, he very probably wouldn’t earn any part of the Low pot unless there was a Wheel or 4/5 of a Wheel on the table. That’s about one chance in a hundred, plus having no or only one live low card, it’d be even more likely that he’d be quartered or worse.

While he mulled that over, I told him that even if he weren’t counterfeited, there might not be three other unpaired low cards on the tableau. With two low cards and two high cards in Hakim’s starting hand, his chance for the nut Low is 0.2374. Hakim said that a 25% chance to win half the pot in a ten-handed game meant that he needed seven opponents to pay to see the Flop just to break even! (Yes.) And the chance of being quartered made the odds even worse! (Yes.)

Hakim’s pretty stubborn: he wasn’t going to eschew his bare A-2 hands without a fight. He realized that being tied was more likely when he was counterfeited, but what were the chances of being tied when he had the nut Low?

That answer is complicated and will take another column to explain. Until then, I told Hakim to think of it this way: if his hand wasn’t counterfeited, then the other six cards of his two ranks must be in the stub of the deck, in the burn, or in enemy hands. Chances are that most of those six cards are in enemy hands, and he could bet it’s fairly likely he’d be quartered.

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