Against All Odds

Jim McKennaJim McKenna

If you play poker for a while, you’ll eventually hear the term “bad beat.” Now, really, is there any beat that’s good? Bad beats usually happen when someone stays in longer than the odds say that they should. Bad beats happens when top pair or top two pairs get beaten by a flush or trips on the river. People with the best hand will suddenly have asecond best hand because a player stayed in against all odds.

Some casinos reward bad beats, which may encourage people to play “baby suited connectors.” In other words, they encourage bad playing. Television is now joining the ranks of influencing new players to become delinquently loose players. So, bad beats are happening more now than ever before now. Why? There are more loose players who think they can outsmart the long shots. Or, that just are not thinking about how bad such miracle catches make them look.

There are some bad beats that make sense for both players to stay with. For example, suppose that you hold a small pocket pair of 3’s and you see the flop with 3, K, 3. Of course, you’re committed and only trying to make sure everyone doesn’t fold. So, you check and call when a player bets. Probably he has a pair of Kings. You’ve got your fish! Don’t let him get away. So, you check again and then get a bet. You’re surprised when you check/raise and your opponent re-raises. Instead of top pair, does this mean that your opponent has pocket Kings? Well, so what? You’ve still got him beat with four 3’s. So, when the river is a King, who gets beat. You guessed it! Your opponent was playing pocket Kings and outdrew your quad 3’s. Now this is a bad beat that was good poker. Most bad beats are the result of a good player against a lucky one.

Bad beats don’t only happen when quads beat quads. In fact, that’s so rare that casino poker rooms can accumulate large bad beat bonuses. Usually, though when such bad beats happen, it’s like the above example. Both players should have stayed committed to the end and let the best hand win. What’s more common are the everyday bad beats where one player is playing the odds and another is playing against all odds. When a bad beat occurs, it happens for these reasons:

1. A player failed to fold and called even though there were poor pot odds and had only 1 or 2 outs.

2. A player slow played and let a poor hand improve.

3. Skill went out the window and the lucky player won.

4. Both players had reason to be committed to the end and one got lucky.

These seem to be the major reasons that bad beats happen. I am sure that there are many other reasons. E-mail me, if you have seen or experienced another way they happen.

Let’s get back to the everyday bad beats (not tournaments) where there are small blinds and no antes. Usually, it starts with players seeing the flop with poor cards to start with. As I mentioned earlier, to play “baby-suited-connectors” in early position (other than the big blind) is asking for a miracle. Of course if you get your flush and other players are calling, you probably will get beat by a higher flush. This was not, however, a bad beat. It was a good beat and you lost because you shouldn’t have played in the first place.

There will always be players who hold onto bad hands like “a dog with a bone.” Occasionally, they will beat you. Be patient. They will usually be the tree and you’ll be the dog in the long run.

There’s more information on odds in my book, Beyond Tells: Power Poker Psychology, that’s now available at Gambling Times, Inc., Kensington Publishers, or you can visit my website: http://jimmckenna-phd.com/Beyond_Tells.htm

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