Poker News

Sam Mudaro is the Omaha Guru

Last time we analyzed connectors and the effect of how they were suited. Today we will take a look at two pair. Two pair may be non-suited, double suited or single suited. As you will see later the effect of how they are suited is minimal.

The 4 suits and 13 ranks, A through K may combine in 78 unique combinations when not taking into account suite or order. In other words the [Js], [Jh], [Ks], [Kh] is no different than [Js], [Jd], [Ks], [Kd] and both are counted as the same. Please note the two previous examples denote hands that are double suited. When we take into account how the pairs are suited there are 234, (3×78) possible combinations.

To determine which of these 234 combinations are profitable I set up a full table of tight players in a typical ring game. I dealt one player each hand at minimum 100,000 times so that the hand was played from each position 10,000 times. The result of these simulations are given in the chart below.

The chart is set up so that you look for you lowest pair on the left and travel across to the right until you are under your highest pair. The A-A is considered low for chart purposes. There are three sections under each pair and they correspond to how the two pairs are suited. The first section indicates double suited. The second, or middle section is single suited while the last section represents non-suited. The color of the section indicates if the hand is profitable. Green indicates a profitable pair. Yellow is a non-profitable pair with a negative return of $1.00 or less, while red indicate a combination the will lose an amount of $1.01 or more on average. The reason I chose three colors is to allow you, the reader to choose whether you would like to play the yellow hands as they may be become profitable from the blinds.

There are only 11 pair combinations that are totally profitable out of the 78, which equates to 14.1%. All of them contain a pair of Aces. The only Ace combination that is not totally profitable is the A-9 and only when not suited. The only other pair that may combine profitably with non- Ace pairs is the King and Queen and neither is totally profitable. The Kings are profitable only in the suited versions when combined with a T through Q. The Queens need to be double suited and only with a T or J as is the case for the K-9.

If we count the total number of combinations, 234 and count only the profitable, (green) combination we wind up with 18.8% of the hands being profitable. Any two pair hand not containing an Ace, where the second pair is not a King or Queen is not playable. If one were to only play two pair hands when one of the pair is a pair of Aces, or Kings with a draw to a Ace high straight, they would not stray far from playing perfect.

So what have we learned? Four cards working together in and of itself is not a playable strategy. We saw this last time with connectors and now with two pair. If you are going to play two pair, you want one pair to be Aces. Either play holding the nuts or drawing to the nuts. The nuts in this case are top two pair. Drawing to the nuts is a draw to the nut flush or straight. Next time I will look at two low cards with a pair beginning with the A-2 combination.

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