Poker News

Tom ‘Time’ Leonard

Those of you who have ever seen the movie Marathon Man are undoubtedly familiar with the question “Is it safe?”. The evil Nazi dentist, Dr. Mengela, repeatedly inquired of the character played by Dustin Hoffman if it was safe. The Dustin Hoffman character kept replying “Is what safe?”, as he had no clue as to what the crazed doctor, who was inflicting great pain, was referring to. The good doctor wanted to retrieve diamonds from a safety deposit box and was fearful that he would be ambushed after he took them out. Certainly a suspenseful movie with a great tag line that is quite apropos to poker players considering a bet on the river with a marginal hand.

We find ourselves in this situation when we’ve been leading with two over cards or a middle pair and have a caller or two all the way to the river. Then we ask ourselves, as we consider firing in another bet, “Is it safe?” Should we “dog it” on the end or fire in another bet? Well let me use the standard cop out phrase, it depends. It depends on your knowledge of your opponents and the texture of the board. You need to put your opponents on a range of hands that they would have been calling with. A key question to ask yourself is whether or not the river card completed a draw. So much of poker, beyond knowledge of the various critical elements and your opponents, is feel.

Here’s a common scenario which typifies this conundrum. You raise under the gun with Big Slick and are called in two spots, but both blinds fold so you will be first to act during the entire hand. The flop comes deuce, five and ten with two diamonds, so you fire in a bet and again are called by the two remaining players The turn is the eight of spades and you fire again and again are called in both spots. The river is the three of diamonds which possibly completes draws to both an inside straight and a flush. Well, do you fire again? I wouldn’t!

Faced with this dilemma, you need to consider several things. Do you have the winning hand, which is unlikely, or the losing hand and can you make a better hand muck to your bet. If your opponents were on draws that hit, you’ll be raised if you bet. The only possibility to make your opponents lay down a winner is if they chased all the way to the river with small pairs or a busted draw. Both of them? That’s unlikely. Our goal for this session is to review the action and the texture of the board to determine what your opponents are holding before just blithely firing in another bet. This type of insightful analysis should help you answer the doctor’s question………”Is it safe?” See you next “TIME.”

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