Poker News

James McKenna, Ph.D.

How often have you had a pocket pair before the flop and wondered whether they were worth playing. Let’s look at three pocket pairs and you are in middle position with each of these: [2s][2h].

No one has raised the bet before you. However, there are a number of players behind you (including the blinds) that could raise the bet. Or, you might get these before the flop in your middle position-The same middle position conditions exist and your pocket pair is: [9d][9s]. Do you call, raise, or fold? Finally, for this discussion, suppose that you are dealt this pocket pair before the flop and you are in middle position: [Qc][Qd].

What’s your play? All three pocket pair are being played, pre-flop, from middle position, and no one has raised the bet before you act. From the start, everyone is chasing to make the best hand at the flop or the river. Some chase “impossible dreams” while a few are chasing smart. Let’s see what kind of chaser you are. We know only one thing for sure. The odds of your getting a third matching card (on the flop) are about 8 % or 11 to 1. After that, it drops to about 4% or 22 to 1. So, how stubbornly do you usually play these pocket pairs? Do you just play the odds? Do you take in consideration what position you are betting from? Who and what type of players will act after you? Of course, a seasoned player will take all of these into account.

Most players in low-limit games will play any pocket pair as long as there are no raises. Some more disciplined players will fold the Two’s if there are any raises before or after they call.

Some players will slow play the 9’s and the Queen’s to see what the rest of the table is doing. With medium pairs, there’s really in no right or wrong answer to whether to simply call or to raise the bet. Raising has its advantages to narrow the field of Aces and Kings with small kickers. However, in low-limit games, these small-kickers players will act like a dog with a bone and call to the river. Let’s suppose that the flop comes to: [Ad][Jd][10s].

And, two players bet before you. With three over cards, do you get stubborn and call with your pocket pair? What are the odds of chasing this hand? Well, with the 2’s, you are three times beaten-maybe more if someone also has a pocket pair. Now the pocket nines and the pocket queens have some possibility of improving and may be worth a chase. What do you think? If you have the pocket nines, the flop gave you a flush draw and a gutshotstraight draw.

What are the odds of chasing this hand with three over cards, even though you have a gut shot and a flush draw? To get trips on the turn, it’s still an 11 to 1 shot. Then if the 9 came, it could give someone holding a Queen, King a higher straight. To get either the straight or the flush you’d have to get two needed cards in a row (”runner, runner) Your odds of getting another diamond on the turn is about 35% or 2:1. However, to get the fifth diamond, it’s only a 5:1 chance. Do you hold your breath and “runner-runner a flush? So, go figure! Would you lay-down this pair? I hope so. However, in low limit games the cost of going to the river is often so little that many players would chase this hand. It could be that the odds of making trips are 11:1 with two outs. In a low limit game (like $3-$6) it’s worth the chase if there is at least $66 in the pot. Of course, even if you make it, you’ll probably get beaten by a straight or flush. So is this chase smart or dumb?

We had so much fun with that, let’s take the same flop if you held the pocket Queens. Now, you only have one over card to worry about. Yet, you have a “runner-runner” Royal Flush draw, a flush draw, a gut shot straight draw, with a “runner-runner” full house possibility. So, what do you think? Yeah! Go ahead play it, that’s gambling and that’s chasing smart.

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