Poker News

Sam Mudaro

Today I will begin by asking a simple question. It is your turn to act. You have two low cards. A possible draw to the second nut low, perhaps a deuce and trey. Should you call?

The answer to this question depends upon a number of factors including, to name a few:

a. Are you in the blinds?

b. What is your position in relation to the blinds?

c. How many players before you have called?

d. Has the pot been raised or re-raised?

e. Is the game loose or tight?

f. Are the loose players to your right or left?

g. Are the tight players to your right or left?

h. How well do you know your players?

i. Are your cards suited?

j. Do you have a draw to a strong high?

The answers to these questions are well beyond the scope of this article. I will offer some facts, which will help you make a conscious decision. Let me begin by stating a low will get there 46.9% of the time. Put another way, a low will not be made over 50% of the time. A high will get there 100% of the time. Presented below are the results of 20 million hands dealt at random.

This chart is telling us that the nut low will win 24.4% of the time. Less than _ of those wins, (21.4%) will be shared, (Multiple Winners), with other players having the same low. 78.6% of the time you will not have to share your low with another low. The 3rd nut low only wins 3.8% of the time. Half the time you do win, you will be sharing the low with other low winners. In other words you will have the exclusive low and win 1.9% of the time. All is not bleak. Some of your low hands will scoop the pot as when you have a straight or flush. Your other two cards may combine to win the high?

Serious Omaha players need to know how often there is no low and how often you will be quartered or worse. This information should help curb your raising before the flop when all you have is a low draw. If I am looking down at 2-3-9-K unsuited I will only play this hand from late position. I do not want to call a raise to have to see the flop. It is too easy to get trapped with a flop of 4-5-Q or A-2-Q rainbow. On the other hand if I have 2-3-K-K double suited I would call a raise. I would be looking for an Ace on the flop along with at least one low card other than a 2 or 3. It would also be nice to have two cards suited to either of my kings. I do not want to be drawing to the second best low without a decent high draw.

Even with this kind of a flop one must be mindful of a better low and a better high. So what have we learned? A low will only win 46.9%. There is no low 53.1% of the time. A nut low will be quartered or worse 21.4% of the time. A 3rd nut low and worse will have multiple winners 50% of the time. A second nut low will only win 9.3% of the time. 17% of those lows will be shared. We should strive to play two-way hands that can scoop.

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