Poker News

Sam Mudaro

Today we will accomplish two objectives. I will answer a reader’s question, as best I can, from the information presented. I will also outline what information we should assimilate into our decision process in order to evaluate the decision thoroughly. It will become evident why writers frequently state: “It depends”.

Kim from Texas writes, “I held [Ac], [2d], [3h], [Ts]. I called and got a flop of TT3. My opponent bet the pot with, A, K, J, T. The turn was a blank. He bet again and the river was a Jack. Did I over play it or was I just unlucky? I could have dropped after the first pot sized bet, but I knew I was getting the right price.”

What I am presented with is a set of incomplete information. One thing is absolutely positive: on the flop Kim had the absolute stone cold nuts. Even better it is the high nut. At worst Kim may only get quartered. We all know we have a higher risk of getting quartered or worse with a nut low. It is clear that not only should you call on the flop, but raise. The primary reasons for raising is to eliminate back door low draws, (some players holding A, 2 actually think they have a low draw in this situation), and make it pricey for anyone trying to draw. You want to try and knock out someone holding a solitary ten hoping to hit a full house. By raising in this situation you are stating “I already have the nuts. If you want to chase, it will cost you.” When a flop comes rainbow with two paired high cards and an A through 5 as the third card we may assume that a full house is there or a nut high draw. This is high/low poker and most people will play two high cards with two low cards or three lowcards with a single high card.

After the flop I do not have enough information to render an opinion. Here is a list of missing information assuming we have already called, bet or raised the flop:

1. How many players saw the flop?

2. How many players to act after you?

3. How many players to act in front of you?

4. How many players were at the table at the start of the hand?

5. How much was in the pot?

6. How much could you bet or raise?

7. What kind of table is it? Loose, tight or average.

8. Did you have position over your opponent(s)? If so why did you not raise on the flop?

9. What kind of read do you have on your opponent?

a) Would he likely fold to a re-raise?

b) Has he been pushing marginal hands?

c) Does he consistently bluff or represent the best hand?

d) Does he bet draws?

e) Does he show down only the nuts?

10. How much money did you and your opponent start the hand with?

11. Was the flop suited?

12. Did the turn card put two of a suit on the board? 13. Was the turn card higher then your 3?

14. Did the turn card open a straight or low possibility?

15. Was the turn card a scare card for you?

Playing poker entails more than just playing your cards. One must constantly be aware of their surrounding and how each player acts. This is more important in Pot Limit then Fixed Limit games and is most important in No Limit. Next time we will look at how each of the factors above affects our decision process.

Based on the limited information from our reader, Kim, I set up the following simulations to confirm my gut feeling that the hand was definitely profitable and worthy of a raise. Since Kim did not indicate whether flop was suited I ran all combination. Without knowing the turn card there would be 41 possible cards on the turn less anything not considered a blank.

From the chart above it is evident that this hand is indeed playable with a net profit of over $6.00 and a win % in excess of 35%. The results are virtually the same across all starting flops. It scoops the pot around 10% of the time and will win the high only just over 3.5%. About 7% of the time you will not get called. You will win the low only 14.8%, which means you will lose with your full house 85.2% of the time. This loss rate is more then offset by the other three categories. Well Kim I did the best I could with the information I had and hopefully answered your question.

So what have we learned? A full house, even one less then the nuts can be powerful if it is combined with a back door low draw. Playing poker entails more than just reading your own cards. We should strive to incorporate all the available information we have when we render a decision.

Filed under: Poker News