Poker News

Richard Burke

On a dreary Saturday in the fall at my local poker room, my poker gods were napping, so I readily agreed when Fred invited me to the bar to answer a limit Hold’Em question. While partaking of an adult beverage, Fred asked if he should have played the following hand differently. As the Cutoff in an average, ten-handed $4-8 Hold’Em game, he peeked at his hand and saw [2h]-[2c]. He called. The Button called, the Small Blind called, and the Big Blind checked. Seven-handed they saw the dealer flop [6d]-[2s]-[6c]. Everyone upstream checked. Fred decided to bet $4, hoping that the enemy would think that he was trying to steal, and a few “customers” would call, but they all put him on a hand like [8h]-[6h] and folded. I nodded wisely and affected a pensive look. A thoroughly good fellow, Fred bought another round.

Raising with small pockets in late position has its advantages, I told Fred. If there were only one limper or raiser upstream, then your raise might isolate her. Although a big dog to higher pockets, heads-up a pocket Pair is a slight favorite against two overcards. If there were three or more callers upstream, then your raise might entice the Blinds also to call because their pot odds, and yours, would be attractive.

Barring Straights and Flushes, the chance that you will improve to at least Trips is 0.192, about 20%, so you want four callers, and more would be a plus. If there were two or three callers, then you might play your small pockets as if they were Top Pair or an Overpair: if you win, then that’s great; if not, then you’ve advertised a “wild” image. Fred stirred his drink for a bit and agreed that he should have raised pre-Flop.

The probability of flopping a Set and a Pair for a Full House is C(2,1)*12*C(4,2)/C(50,3), about 1 in 136 times, I told him. Because they’re so rare and so strong you want to make the most of your good fortune, I said.

If you had raised pre-Flop, I told him, then your opponents would have put you on a hand like [Ah]-[Kc]. One or two might have called your post-Flop bet. Or you even could have checked, acting like you needed a free Turn card.

If you had raised and the Flop had been something like [Kd]-[2s]-[Kc], then they might have put you on Trip Kings, but almost certainly not a Full House. You would have bet, hoping to elicit a call from anyone holding a King, and maybe even a check-raise when the bets doubled.

In your case, because you were so far ahead post- Flop you should have checked, so that everyone saw the Turn for free. When you’re way ahead, I told him, a check is deceptive, and it gives the enemy a free chance to make hands strong enough to call or raise you when the bets double.

Slow-playing is always a gamble, I told him. You’d be at risk to a bigger Boat if anyone had started with 6d-2d, and/or Quads if anyone hit a fourouter like [Kh]-[6h] or [Ad]-[6s], but that’s why we call it “gambling.”

After the house rake and dealer toke, you stacked $28. You’re always happy to stack chips, but those two goofs forewent the opportunity to stack much more. At these drink prices, you would welcome a half-C or more. Fred agreed.

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