Poker News

John Carlisle

It seems as if every poker player I interact with is attempting to solidify his or her understanding of poker statistics. They spend hours memorizing charts, using a poker odds calculator online, and honing their skills at adding-up implied pot odds while under the pressure of a big raise. Most of us have grasped the importance of knowing the likelihood of the cards falling as they do, giving us valuable information to help decide how to proceed with the hand.

For so many, though, the outcome that the numbers produce can easily be overlooked. We consistently see seasoned players drawing for miracle belly-busters or straights, even though the statistics would have told them to get out of the hand. These players will often follow-up the lucky win with a chuckle, explaining that they “came to gamble” or that they “had a hunch.” The losing players then groan in frustration, wondering why the statistics didn’t hold-up for them. One of the problems with pot odds and statistics is that the way that we think is not inherently mathematical. Allowing the numbers to drive our every decision makes us feel robotic and lifeless. Instead, our personality battles to rise to the surface. An internal competitive fire burns, prompting us to think and act with determination. We believe that we can outplay our opponents and beat the odds.

Largely, it is our experiences on and off the table that shape our outlook and play. In essence, we “trust” our own experience more than we trust the numbers. Our successes and failures are much greater determining factors in decision making than we often realize. For instance, Doyle Brunson knows that 10-2 isn’t a great starting hand statistically speaking, but his personal luck and success with this hand will lead him to play it pretty often.

We also determine our thoughts and behaviors due to what we’ve experienced through others. We continually observe others and attempt to learn from them. This leads many of us to employ man-who thinking: “I knew a man-who played every one of his draws, and he turned a twenty thousand dollar profit a year!” This can lead us to obviously dangerous thinking and habits. When counseling clients I often hear things like, “I know an old man who smoked 2 packs a day and drank whisky all day for 70 years, and he’s still alive and kicking!” The assumption is that if it worked for the other guy, it will undoubtedly work for me. In fact, with our propensity to imagine ourselves as greater and smarter than the next guy, we often think that it will turn out even better for us! Our mind fools us to think that if the other guy turned a twenty thousand profit while playing his draws, I could probably do the same and make a thirty grand profit!

Man-who statistics and personal experiences will subtly affect you and your play over time. The key is to continually reevaluate yourself and the decisions that you make, on and off the table. Take time to think through wins and losses alike, wondering what they will mean to you the next time a similar situation presents itself. Never fall into the trap of being passive and allowing simple experiences overtake your thinking. Playing poker optimally is a series of internal, mental struggles, not just a competition against other players. It is continual emotional and intellectual efforts, as well as statistical knowledge, which combine to help make good players great. Now go make it happen.

Filed under: Poker News