Poker News

Richard Burke

Fred steamed out of my local poker room on that Thursday afternoon in early fall, muttering under his breath. The next day he had calmed down enough to tell his tale of woe. Holding Ad-Jd in middle position, Fred raised $4.

On the button, George, a veteran Hold’Em player, called the $8. Two-handed they saw the Flop come [Kd]-[9d]-[2d]. Fred thought that a splendid Flop and opened with $4. George’s raise was a welcome surprise and Fred eagerly re-raised. The Turn was the [5d]. Fred bet $8; George called. The River was the [2h]. Fred bet $8; George raised; Fred called. When George showed his [9s]-[9h], for Nines-Full-of-Deuces, Fred stood, wished everyone good luck, and cashed out. “Was that a bad beat, or what?” asked Fred. I told Fred that it wasn’t a bad beat, just bad luck, plus that he had played the hand poorly. “Did not,” he sniffed. (Fred gets huffy when he thinks I’m criticizing his play.)

Follow me on this, I told Fred. Your re-raise on the Flop convinced George you had a Flush, Aces or Top Pair with a Flush redraw. Fred disagreed. He would have also re-raised with Top Set, he said. With those three diamonds on the table, would you really have re-raised with Kh-Ks? Fred said he would’ve. Could we agree at least that his re-raise narrowed his hands to a Flush, Top Set, Aces or Top Pair with a redraw? We agreed.

When the dealer turned the fourth diamond, you bet right out. That convinced George you had the nut Flush, I said. Fred agreed. Post-Turn, the pot was offering George $57 for his $8, a bit more than 7 for 1. He knew you had the nut Flush and he had to improve to a Full House or better.

If George had held Two Pairs, then he would have only four outs to beat your Flush. There were 44 unknown cards remaining, so George’s cards odds would have been 4/44, 1 chance in 11. With cards odds much worse than pot odds, George would have folded. With a Set, George had ten outs, and his cards odds were 10/44, 1 chance in 4.4. With cards odds much shorter than his pot odds, his call was correct. You should have known, I said, that George wouldn’t have called your bet on the Turn without a Set. Fred stared at the floor; he knew what was coming. When the River paired the Deuce, you should have known that he made a Full House! Fred said nothing.

George knew you had a Flush. You knew George had a Set, or at least suspected so. When the dealer put the second Deuce on the table, why did you bet, I asked. Fred didn’t answer. When George raised, why did you call, I asked. No answer. You should have checked the River, and then mucked when George bet. That would have saved you $16.

Fred bridled at that: he would never muck the nut Flush, he said. Okay, then you should have checked when the River paired the board, and made a crying call when George bet.That would have saved you $8. George is neither a beginner nor a fool: he could see four diamonds on the board. He knew he had the better hand: that’s why he raised. You have to trust your opponent sometimes, I told Fred, and maybe most of the time in limit games.

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