Poker News

Sam Mudaro is the Omaha Guru

Today we shall continue with questions to ask while deciding whether to proceed with a hand or muck it.

We should always know how much money our opponents begin the hand with. The number need not be exact but a good estimate is needed. This is more critical in a no-limit game then in a limit game. One key concept to remember regardless of the limit is that you can’t bluff an all in player. Many times a player will call a bet and not announce they are all in or simply have half a bet left. It will be near impossible to bluff this person off any kind of hand. You may also be forced to show down a hand you would rather have mucked.

If the game is no limit and you are contemplating calling a raise you need to know if your opponents will be able to raise back and force you to play for all your chips. You not only need to know how much money your opponents have, you must be conscious as to where the big stacks are in relation to the action. When the big stacks act before you and have checked they will be able to use their chips to bully the field unless someone raises.

When you are the big stack you want to put pressure on the small stacks, especially if they are in the blinds, to play for all or a significant portion of their chips. The pressure you may apply is even greater in a tournament when the small stacks are struggling to get into the money or move up a notch. This is an effective ploy even when the small stacks have folded at a final table. Someone in third or fourth chip position may fold a better hand under pressure, simply to maintain his or her payout position. This works well when there are a couple of players who can barely make the blinds. The logic of the middle stacks is “Why should I risk dropping down in the payout table when all I have to do is muck and wait another round and see who gets knocked out.”

After the flop you must decide whether you want to continue with your hand. One item to consider is whether the flop is suited or not. The chart below shows how often a flush, straight flush and royal flush will get there given various flops of K-9-2.

Each of these Omaha H/ L flops was dealt 1,000,000 times to see how often each hand type would win. I chose this 3-card flop as it has very little going for it in terms of a low draw or straight draw. In the first row, in which none of the cards are suited, a flush was made roughly 15% of the time combined, (Comb). The next three rows present the results when two of the cards are suited. On the 2nd row, the K and the 9 are suited, while the K and 2 on the 3rd row and the 9 and 2 on the 4th row. Statistically it makes no difference which cards aresuited. In fact there is not much difference whether any of the cards are suited. When you hold 2 of a suit there is an 11.8% chance you will flop 4 to a flush. You will complete your flush 20% of the time on the turn and 20.5% on the river on average.

This particular hand is lower then the average because fewer people will continue with their hands given this flop. Hence there is less chance someone will back into a flush. With this particular flop I would feel comfortable flopping a set or top two pair.

When the turn card matches the suit of one of the cards of the flop you must ask yourself is there now a possible flush draw to contend with. This can be a tough decision if you don’t already have a made hand. You may not want to pursue a straight draw as you may get there and lose to a flush, especially if this is your only shot at the pot. You need to be mindful of the betting if you call.

Omaha H/L is a game of having or drawing to the nuts. In pot-limit or nolimit, drawing to anything but the nuts can spell financial disaster. Another item to consider on the turn occurs when you flop a set. You have two 9’s and the flop delivers a 4-5-9 rainbow. If the turn card is higher then a nine you need to consider someone may have a larger set. If the flop is an eight or less and does not pair the board, you need to worry about a straight and most likely having to call a raise from the lows.

Lets now assume you are holding 9-4 and are presented with a flop of 4- 9-9. Again you must worry if the turn card is higher then a 4. With this kind of a flop you may very well get called with someone holding any pair greater then nines.

Your strategy here and the previous situation may be to make you opponents pay to see the turn by raising or re-raising. Next time we will begin looking at straight draws.

So what have we learned? We should always pay attention to your opponents stack size. When the turn hits the board, we should always stop and ask ourselves how may this card have helped our opponents?

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