Poker News

Richard Burke

On a Friday afternoon in mid-winter my local poker room was crowded. In a ten-handed $4-$8 hold’em game, I was the small blind. Two players voluntarily called and six folded when I peeked at my hand and saw Jf-6f. Because my pot odds were 7-to-1, I called.

The chances of a good flop for any two suited cards are about 1 in 7. A good flop would be a full house or quads, a probability of about 1 percent, C(6,3)/C(50,3); a flush, a probability of C(11,3)/ C(50,3), also about 1 percent; two pair or trips, about 3 percent, C(6,2)*C(44,1)/C(50,3); and for an unpaired flop with two clubs, C(11,2)*C(33,1)/C(50,3), or about 9 percent. Those four probabilities can be added to obtain 13.6 percent, or about 1 chance in 7.4. If the pot odds are larger than the card odds, it’s not a bad bet.

Even if the big blind were to raise, the pot odds would likely still be 8 for 1, because most players who freely enter the pot will call one raise, and there would be 24 chips in the pot at my turn, again offering 8 for 1 pot odds. The big blind did raise and we three all called.

The flop was Ad-Qc-Tc. I counted my outs: any one of nine clubs would make a flush, but the Ac would pair the board; any of the three other kings would make a straight, but anyone else with a jack would tie me. Thus, I had eight clean outs and four iffy ones. My cards odds were between 1 in 6 and 1 in 4.

It’s important to remember that even the smallest flush wins 76 percent of the time when there are exactly three trumps on an unpaired board. The Qf promoted mypotential flush to third nut: it would win 88 percent of the time.

I checked, the big blind bet, a player folded, Fred called. After the rake, bad-beat drop, and toke-to-be, my pot odds were $39 for $4, about 10 for 1. I just called. (I should have raised.)

The turn was the 4f, for Ad-Qf-Tf-4f on the board; three clubs, and no pairs. I checked. The big blind bet; Fred called; I raised, making the others pay to improve. After the rake, bad-beat drop, and toke-to-be, there was $71 in the pot, offering 10 for 1 odds to a caller. Two pair would have four outs for card odds of 1 in 11, not a great call but not awful either. If someone had aces-up with the Af, then she would have eleven outs, for card odds of 1 in 4. Someone with a set would have ten outs for card odds of 1 in 4.4, a good call. The big blind called. Fred folded.

The 9d was a great river card because it didn’t pair the board and it wasn’t a club. The board was Ad-Qc-Tc-4c-9d. I bet; the big blind called; I tabled the third nut flush. The big blind flashed Ac- Qd and hurled them into the muck.

The big blind had top two pair and seven additional outs holding the Ac, so her lead bet on the turn wasn’t a mistake. Withoutthe trump ace, she should just check with those three trumps on the board. Your pot odds aren’t usually large enough to call with any two suited hole cards unless there are seven other players, except in the blinds. In the small blind with just three callers, my pot odds are 8 for 1, so I call with any suited hand.

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