Poker News

George Epstein

Rarely do we speak of poker and world politics in the same breath. They seem so far removed from one another. But there is a strong connection. I’ll explain. . .

Having spent most of my engineering career (50-plus years) dealing with space systems, I was quite interested in reading about China’s recently demonstrated ability to destroy satellites in space. The U.S. has large, very sophisticated and extremely expensive satellites orbiting the Earth to provide more than just the Global Positioning System to aid in navigation. There also are many surveillance satellites to observe happenings on and around our planet. There are also large communications satellites that permit all sorts of global communications to keep our military and other agencies in contact at all times in all parts of the world. Take my word for it: They are very costly to build, test, launch and operate in outer space.

On January 11, China launched an anti-satellite (ASAT) missile from the ground to show that it could knock out a satellite orbiting in space around the Earth. According to Aviation Week & Space Technology magazine, China may have had an ulterior motive in announcing and conducting this test. Quoting a former director of a Think Tank in Taiwan, “the test was a warning not just to Taiwan, but also to the U.S. to affect how the U.S. would assist Taiwan.”

A highly respected analyst connected with the Australian National University stated, “In the case of the Taiwan Strait scenario, it also keeps costs of American entry as high as possible.”

What does this have to do with the game of poker? That’s a fair question. In poker, when we raise or reraise, we are issuing a warning to our opponents. It’s like saying, “You better watch out for me. I have a strong hand.” Now they respect - and perhaps even fear us.

You see, China may still have its eyes on Taiwan. When China threatened a takeover in 1996, the U.S. “put on a display of support” in defense of Taiwan. But now China’s message is, “US be forewarned. Be it known that China has the capacity to destroy U.S. satellites. Better be cautious. . . “

Does the US want to risk calling China’s all-in bet? The “card odds” may not be favorable compared to the “pot odds.” The cost of a Chinese ASAT is a small fraction of the cost of a U.S. military surveillance or communications satellite. In the game of politics, China may have shown they can exercise considerable leverage over any US decision about its willingness to defend Taiwan. You might say that China has more to gain than it might lose; it may have a positive expectation. What’s more, if China were to make another move on Taiwan, the US might wonder whether China was serious or bluffing. But now we know it would really be a semibluff.

China may not have the besthand on the turn, but it could easily draw the winning card on the river. Fortunately there is another theory: China really wants a ban on testing weapons in space, which the US has opposed. Knowing that China has the potential capability to destroy satellites in space, the US is more likely to agree to the ban. When you know your opponent bets or raises with strong hands, you are bound to be more cautious before you bet into him, and less inclined to challenge him.

That’s poker, and it’s the same in world politics. After all, the game of poker really is a microcosm - a miniature version - of the game of life, including world politics.

. . . So readers, what’s YOUR opinion?

George “The Engineer” Epstein is the author of The Greatest Book of Poker for Winners! and Hold’em or Fold’em? - An Algorithm for Making the Key Decision (T/C Press, PO Box 36006, Los Angeles, CA 90036) He teaches poker courses and the Poker Lab at the Claude Pepper Sr. Citizen Center under the auspices of the City of Los Angeles Dept. of Recreation and Parks.

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