Poker News

Lou Krieger

A continuation bet is one of the most commonly employed tactical ploys in no-limit hold’em, and its popularity is evidenced by the many players who use it above most other tactics in no-limit hold’em games.

It’s simple to understand and use, and perhaps that helps to account for much of its popularity. Here’s how it works.

You raise before the flop with a plan to come out betting whether the flop favored you or not. At least you will most of the time. If the flop was As-Ks-Js, and you raised before the flop with 9d-8d and you have a gaggle of opponents, you might just want to save your money for a better opportunity by checking and folding at the first sign of an opponent’s bet. But other than that, you’re going to bet out.

That’s a continuation bet. It’s as simple as that. You raised before the flop and now you’re going to bet out just as if the flop was precisely what you were hoping for. No ace in your hand, and an ace flops? No problem. Fire out a continuation bet just as if the ace helped you. Three baby cards on the flop? Bet anyway. Pretend you raised before the flop with a big pocket pair and are now betting into a board that doesn’t look like it helped anyone- and your pocket pair is still the boss.

While this is a very simple idea-what could be simpler than betting before the flop and continuing to bet just as if that flop was right down your alley, even if it misses you completely-it won’t fool every player all of the time. Savvy opponents won’t be fooled at all. Better players will smell out a continuation bet a mile away, and they’ll often call, or even raise, in hopes of taking the pot on the flop or on the turn.

Suppose you bet into a ragged flop just like you had a big pair. Sharp opponents will realize there’s no way in the world that the flop helped you, and will put you on a pair big enough to have raised with before the flop or overcards-one or the other. Your opponent knows that if you raised with big cards, you still don’t even have so much as a pair.

Since a raggedy flop doesn’t look like it would improve your hand, a savvy opponent knows you are more likely to be holding overcards than a pair. It’s not based on a read or anything that sophisticated. It’s just elementary probability. If you would have raised with any pair of nines or higher, as well as with A-K, A-Q, K-Q, or K-J from your position, your opponent realizes that there are six possible versions of any pair, and 16 ways to combine an ace with a king, or an ace with a queen … you get the picture.

Since there are six ways you could have been dealt any of six different pairs, from nines through aces, there are 36 different ways for you to make one of those pairs. Because you have 16 chances to make each of four different big-card combinations (16 ways to make A-K, A-Q, K-Q or K-J), you can be dealt 64 raising hands that are not pairs. Given these assumptions you are nearly a 64- to-36 underdog, (you can round it to 3-to-1; it’s close enough), to have a pair.

So if you fire out a continuation bet that’s three or four times the big blind and your opponent smells something fishy, he is likely to come right over the top with a raise. When you don’t have much of a hand or any sort of a draw, it’s tough to call any raise and you’d be foolhardy to do so.

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