Poker News

Ashley Adams

I bought a toaster oven the other day at Best Buy. $79.00 for the nice model. I took it home but I couldn’t get it to work. Really! A toaster oven. It had so many special features, computer chips, buttons, timers, and even a hand-held remote control that I honestly could not toast a damn piece of bread without reading the manual. And it still flashes 12:00 constantly. Outrageous!

What happened to putting the bread in the slot and pulling down the handle?

Things shouldn’t be so complicated. A reasonably smart person should be able to just figure stuff out without reading a book or taking a course. We should be able to use our intuition.

That’s the beauty of poker; it can be played intuitively. You don’t have to be a genius to know when to fold, call, check or raise. You don’t have to memorize any conventions, as you do in bridge, or a long list of openings as you do in chess. You can just play.

So few things are left to us where intuition is enough. Poker at least, can be mastered with good card sense, a basic understanding of the game, and good instincts. In fact, the good intuitive player who better understands the more intuitive aspects of the game can soundly thrash players who rely strictly on math or become overly mechanical in their play. A good street-smart poker player will win the money from an overly book-smart one. At least that’s an accepted myth about the game.

But for most players, intuition isn’t sufficient to turn them into winning players. While they often delude themselves into thinking they’re profitable players, most people need more than their intuition teaches them. Sadly for them, intuition in poker can often lead a player to the wrong play.

Here’s one example. You’re playing a $2-$4 seven-card stud game and are dealt a split pair of kings. The forced bet brings it in for $1.00. The first two players fold. There are two aces, a queen, a nine and the bring-in’s trey behind you. You figure that since there are two aces out, it is less likely that one of them has a pair of aces than if only one held an ace. You don’t want to scare everyone else out with a raise. So you just call the bring-in, hoping to lure in your opponents with what you presume are much weaker hands.

Intuitively, you figured that with two aces out, the chances that someone had a pair of aces was diminished. But your intuition was wrong. The chances are better. While it’s true that the chances of either player having a pair of aces is diminished, when you add up the chances of each player, the chance that at least one player has a pair of aces is greater when there are two aces exposed.

Similarly, if both of the aces call the bring-in, the chances that one of them will catch a pair of aceson fourth street is also greater than if there was only one ace exposed. So calling the bring-in and allowing all your opponents to play cheaply, assuming neither already has a pair, further reduces your chances of winning.

Your best play with a split pair of kings in this situation, intuition aside, is to complete the bet to $2.00, hoping to knock out both players with the ace. If one of the guys with the ace re-raises you, you can safely fold to what you can presume is a pair of aces. In general, you want to limit the field with that premium pair-ideally to one other opponent.

Filed under: Poker News