Poker News

George Epstein

The War in Iraq and the Game of Poker The world news is replete with stories about the terrible state of affairs in the Middle East, especially in Iraq, and the growing danger of terrorism around the world, largely related to the war in Iraq. Thinking about it, I found myself asking the question:

How is the war in Iraq like a hand of poker? At first I hesitated to write about it. Poker is such a marvelous game. How could anyone dare talk about it in the same breath as the horror of a war that’s claimed the lives of thousands of young men and women, and tens of thousands of Iraqis. But then considering that the game of poker is, in fact, a microcosm-a miniature version-of life, perhaps we can learn a valuable lesson by examining world events from the perspective of a poke hand. Recently the Los Angeles Times ran an editorial entitled, Trapped by Iraq, by Timothy Garton Ash, a professor at Oxford University and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. His credentials are outstanding. In his opinion, “For the United States, the world is now, as a result of the Iraq war, a more dangerous place.” He explains that the result of our actions has been the “revitalizing of militant Islamism and enhancement of the international appeal of the Al Queda brand,” thereby creating a more dangerous world.

Trapping. In the game of poker, a clever and deceptive player sometimes traps an opponent. You induce your opponent to make a move that he thinks is in his best interest but, in reality, is not. He acts in such a way that will subsequently cost him when you spring the trap. Analogy: The animal is lured into the trap with a morsel of food, then, once he enters the trap, the door slams shut. He’s had it! He is a goner.

In the case of Iraq, Professor Ash believes “Osama bin Laden’s plan was to get the U.S. to overreact and overreach itself. With the invasion of Iraq, (President) Bush fell slap-bang into that trap.” If that indeed is the case, then bin Laden’s trap succeeded. According to the U.S. government’s National Intelligence Estimate released in July, Al Queda in Iraq now is one of the most significant threats to the security of the U.S. homeland.

A response to the attack of 9/11 certainly was warranted. U.S. and allied troops went into Afghanistan to engage Osama bin Laden and his forces. But then, it appears, we overreacted and invaded Iraq. Did we, the U.S., fall into bin Laden’s trap? Perhaps it would have been prudent to have just called his “bet” by sending our troops into Afghanistan, concentrating our efforts there to fully rout out bin Laden and his followers. Instead, we decided to “raise” by also attacking Iraq which, at the time, had limited if any Al Queda influence. Did we fall into Osama bin Laden’s trap? As in the game of poker, did we allow ourselves to get trapped by a clever, deceptive opponent? In the game of poker the consequences of being trapped are the loss of a few dollars. In the game of war and world politics, the consequences can be drastic.

And then I wondered, if President Bush had been a poker player, like Harry Truman and so many other successful presidents before him, perhaps he could have avoided this “trap.” So, readers, what’s YOUR opinion?

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