Poker News

A Monte Carlo simulator, computes your win probabilities, P{W}, as shown.

Fred had used an on-line, Independent Chip Model calculator to track players? equities in tournaments he played on the Internet. Doing that hadn?t helped him win any tournaments, so he asked why he should bother with an ICM calculator at all. The ICM helps you analyze situations to find the right plays, I answered.

Suppose you?re on the button at a ten-player table and everyone folds to you. The blinds are 1,000-2,000 and after the 100 ante you have 4,900 in chips; the small blind has 28,900; the big blind has 27,900; and the other seven each have 9,900. An ICM calculator reckons your table equity at 0.0445.

If you were to push all-in, then you estimate the probability that both would fold (BF) at 0.1, and the other three possibilities each at 0.3. You put small blind on A♦-7♠ and the big blind on 9♣-8♦, if they were to call. If you hold K♥-T♥, then PokerStove?, a Monte Carlo simulator, computes your win probabilities, P{W}, as shown.

Multiplying the probabilities times your would-be equities produces weighted equities, which sum to 0.0536. Since your weighted equity would be larger than if you folded, you should push.

What about those win percentages, Fred asked, couldn?t my opponents hold better, or worse, hands. With poorer hands they would more likely fold: you must assign them some values to call your push, not that off-suited ace-rag and medium connector are all that great. With better hands they would more likely call, and your win percentage would decrease.

You?d have to do something soon, or you?d be blinded off?the cardinal sin of tournament play?because the antes and the blinds would cost 80 percent of your stack if you were to wait another orbit of the dealer button. You must act while you have enough chips to give your opponents pause. Of course your opponents know that too, and they?ll tend to call even with weak hands.

Your table image is important. If your opponents perceive you as tight-aggressive, then it?s more likely they?ll fold. If they think you?ll push with any two cards, then they?re more likely to call. This is so important, I told Fred, that we?ll address this much more another time.

You hope they?ll both fold; if so, then you?ll have enough chips for another lap. If you should then catch a hand, you can again push all-in, and perhaps double-up.

If either or both were to call, then you?d have chances ranging from 0.66 to 0.40 to double or triple up. Your short chip position dictates that it?s time to gamble: the ICM validates that decision.

Fred mulled and then opined he wouldn?t have time do all that analysis before he had to act. I agreed. You need to jot down typical situations for later study. After you?ve analyzed several, you should understand the ICM?s guiding principles and then apply them to tournament play.

If there?s a decent chance your opponents will fold, then the ICM indicates a push with any two cards when you have fewer chips than three times the big blind. If they don?t, well, then you still have a chance to increase your equity by lucking out. I?d rather go out swinging than get blinded off. ?Me too,? said Fred.

ICM Part 1

ICM Part 2

ICM Part 4

ICM Part 5

Filed under: Poker News