Poker News

George Epstein

At the California Poker Players Conference (CPPC), held on October 20 - 21 at Hollywood Park Casino, Inglewood, California, I gave a talk entitled Poker is NOT Gambling-Ask Mark Twain.

As part of my talk, I discussed two different definitions of the word “gambling.” What exactly is it? Personally, I like Stan Sludikoff’s definition: “Gambling is betting when the odds are against you.”

A good example of that is playing slot machines where the mechanisms are set so that the house is favored. The lottery is another example-with the odds heavily against the players. Of all the games of chance, only poker offers you the opportunity to put the odds in your favor. On that basis, you are not gambling; you’re investing.

A prudent business person invests to make a profit. He expects to get a return-on-investment (ROI) when he buys a product to sell in his store or when he manufactures a product to sell on the market. That’s another way of saying that a good business person will always have a Positive Expectation (PE) whenever a business decision is made. The expectation is that the decision will lead to a profit.

So, in playing poker, how can you give yourself a positive expectation to ensure that you are investing rather than gambling? That’s the way to play winning poker. I’ll tell you how I do it.

Pre-Flop Betting. Before the flop, I use probability theory to decide whether or not to stay in, and whether or not toraise. With a made hand, I will be an underdog if four or more opponents stay to see the flop. I raise to encourage some of my opponents to fold. If I call the blind with a drawing hand-one that has a reasonable probability of improving to be the best at the showdown, I prefer to see the flop as cheaply as possible (no raises) and with three or more calling the blind. That’s so I can expect a good size pot if my hand connects, and get a good ROI.

Post-Flop Betting. If I think I have the best hand on the flop, then I want to stay in the lead while I build the pot. Betting and raising aggressively is the key.

If I still have a drawing hand, then I rely on the poker odds. An opponent bets. Should I call? If I have enough outs so that the card odds are less than the pot odds, then it is a Positive Expectation (PE) bet-a good call. In the long run, that bet will earn me money. Of course, luck is a factor over which I have little control, but, in the long run, I know that my PE bet will pay off.

Here’s an example. Say you hold four-to-the-nut flush on the turn. One more heart will give you almost a certain winner. You have nine outs, so the card odds are about 4-to-1 against you. An opponent bets. Should you call? So long as the pot contains more than four bets, you are getting a positive expectation. it’s a P.E. bet and will earn you money in the long run. You’re a winner!

By the way, the California Poker Players Conference was a winner too. Anytime you can learn new poker tips from experts, your “investment” is gaining you a positive expectation. One good tip or shared secret could make the difference between a winning and a losing session for years to come.

There were lots of them. Hope to see

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