The Art of Lay Downs
Recently, I have been telling you that the real currency of playing poker is risking.
That’s still true. However, as the song says, you also have to know when to fold ‘em. There’s something to be said about laying down hands when the odds are against you. Sure, good players seem to do this well. However, many players will stay in too long and waste bets that couldbe saved for other, more probable outcomes. It all starts in Texas hold’em with your two hole cards. The decision is whether to play them and from what position certain combinations make playing either smart or dumb. Sure, holding out and waiting for suited high cards or connectors is the standard. Who wouldn’t like to start with pocket aces or Big Slick? Yet, just waiting for the best hole cards is not always enough.
For example, 7-2 off-suit is a bad start in any position. But is it always? If you are in last position and everyone has folded or limped in, a raise with 7-2 off-suit might win the pot. Because most players will base their decision on the size of the first two hole cards, position and willingness to risk does still play a part in the game of poker.
While king-queen off-suit is a good starting hand, what if two players before you raised and re-raised? Suddenly, king-queen doesn’t look as good; does it? Would you play it anyhow? Or, would you put it down. Chances are good that one of raisers has an ace. Still, you could get a straight on the flop, since you are starting with connectors. You might also make a straight. Some players would wait to see the flop before folding. So, would you chance going against the aces? That’s where knowing your opponents is very important. Some opponents will raise the bet with any suited connectors while others would be on a stone-cold bluff.
And that’s just before the flop. What about playing after the flop? Does the flop help your hole cards in any way? Are others betting on the flop? Do you have overcards to the flop? These are just a few of the questions that go into deciding whether to stay or fold. Still, players who have no knowledge of pot odds will be flying purely by the seat of their luck.
On page 249 of Beyond Tells: Power Poker Psychology, I developed a poker odds table for Texas hold’em. For example, you need to be aware of how many outs you have to make a desired hand. Of course the more outs you have, the better your chances are of making that hand. Suppose you have two high, suited connector-cards. That means that you have 15 ways of making an open ended straight and flush draw. The chart shows that you have two chances after the flop or a 54 percent chance of making either (or odds of 1-to-2). After the turn, you only have one chance to make your hand. So, if the flop had two of your suited cards and the turn is no help, you now have a 20 percent chance of making a flush on the river, or odds of 4-to-1 against you. However, if the turn leaves you with only three of your suit and no way to make a flush, it’s time to fold-unless you have a straight draw.
Even though the odds say it would be right to risk staying, still you must weigh the actions of your opponents. If you have small suited cards, consider folding. Yet, they are high suited cards; you may have to stay- unless there’s a pair on the board. So, a lot has to be considered unless you want to act like the blind hog and find your acorn that way.
Filed under: Poker News