Worth Its Weight in Fold
Barbara Connors
Any time you bet or raise in this game, your hand has two ways of winning the pot. You can have the best at the showdown or your opponent might fold. If he does, you take the pot right there. That’s called fold equity.
It’s one reason why aggression is such a key factor to winning at poker. That extra edge that accrues when your opponent mucks his hand, is what fold equity is all about, which is why it’s almost always better to make a bet than to call one.
Like much in poker, the value of fold equity is highly situational. The real trick lies in figuring out just how much your fold equity is worth at any given time, and then using that information to make the best decisions. Since the principles behind fold equity are somewhat related to bluffing-or more specifically, to semi-bluffing-many of the same considerations apply.
First, there’s the size of your bet relative to the size of the pot. Next, the number of opponents you are betting into. Then, the type of opponents you are up against, and the cards you believe they hold.
In no-limit and pot-limit games, an opponent’s stack size is also important. In tournaments, factor in the blind levels and how close you are to the money, as well as anything else that might influence your opponent’s decision to fold or hang in there.
For starters, the bigger your bet and the smaller the pot, the more your fold equity is worth. If you make a pot-sized wager, you stand a much better chance of maneuvering your opponent into folding than if your bet amounts to only a small fraction of the pot. Which is why fold equity has a much greater value in big-bet poker as opposed to smallstakes, no-fold’em limit games. Big bet poker allows you to tailor the size of your wager to maximize the chance that your opponent will fold-assuming you’ve read him correctly. But fold equity decreases dramatically with each additional opponent that you’re betting into. In a multiway pot, your fold equity is practically nil. Chances are strong that at least one of your multiple opponents will call to keep you honest. Plus, multiway pots tend to be bigger, which also diminishes your fold equity. By contrast, in a heads-up situation, the value of fold equity can be huge.
But none of this will do you much good unless you also have an accurate read on your opposition, including the ability to put him on a range of hands. You can push in all your chips against a single opponent, with thousands of dollars on the line, but if that opponent is a calling station on a draw, your fold equity is still going to be bubkes. Conversely, if your opponent is a weak-tight Milquetoast, you’ll have abundant fold equity against him in most situations. Accurately reading your opponents and putting them on hands is possibly the most difficult skill in poker-one that takes a lot of hard work and experience to develop. Also, keep in mind that as the stakes and buy-ins escalate, the quality of your opposition and the amount of money at risk will combine to give you much greater fold equity overall.
It’s difficult to overestimate the importance of fold equity in this game, particularly at the higher levels. Without fold equity, your hand is worth its face value and nothing more. But with enough fold equity, even 7-2 can be a monster. The only time fold equity loses its value is when you are certain your opponent holds a lesser hand that is a longshot to draw out. Then you want a call. But the rest of the time remember this: Aggressive betting equals fold equity, and fold equity equals more value for your hand. That’s a winning formula.
Filed under: Poker News