Poker News

Richard Burke

in the last issue of Poker Player newspaper, we showed tactics for tournament play derived from the Independent Chip Model. In this issue, we present more tactics, and counter-measures for small, medium, and large stacks.

Suppose you’re in the stage of a tournament, I told Fred, where half the remaining players will make the money and the stacks at your table range from five to fifty times the big blind. Furthermore, suppose that one of the small stacks is the big blind and her starting hand requirements are any pair, any ace, any king, or any two cards ranking higher than sevens.

The short-stacked big blind will therefore call an all-in raise 45.1 percent of the time. Her win probability is .6138 (or better) against 9♦ - 8♥ (or worse). Should anyone raise her all-in? The ICM answers that question.

The second column shows your ?fold equity,? the dollar equity that would arise if the big blind were to fold times the probability that she would fold. The last column shows your probable change in equity from putting the big blind all-in. If the big blind were to call, then as shown in columns 3 and 4, a small stack has the most to gain, and also the most to lose.

The above table suggests that someone ought to raise the short-stacked big blind, even with hands as marginal as 9♦ - 8♥ . According to the ICM calculations, any stack size would gain equity.

Fred asked about raising a small stack with ?air.? The next ICM table shows the results of raising all-in with the hammer , 7♦ - 2♥ . Since the probable change in equity is negative for all stack sizes, the ICM doesn’t support raising all-in with ?air? against a short-stacked big blind, or limper, with those calling requirements.

Everyone at the table increases his equity when someone busts out, so if a small stack limps, then either he’s foolish or trapping. He would be foolish because anyone could raise him all-in. But knowing that, a short stack might trap with a big hand, hoping to entice someone to raise him all-in and thereby double up. Fred said he might try that play himself, although he rarely had a big hand and never when he needed it.

While the larger stacks might prefer to wait patiently until the smaller stacks eliminate each other, often a large stack is last and only to act. If so, then he can pressure the blinds with a min-raise at least.

Medium and large stacks might better use their ammo to pound on medium stacks. The small stacks are desperados and more likely to push with anything; the medium stacks tend to play too tightly, hoping to keep a low profile and to back into the money. Because they play too tightly, any attacker has very large fold equity, and may profit from raising with ?air.? A frustrated medium stack may play back at you, I told Fred, after you’ve raised his big blind yet again, so you need to pick your spots, and trust your reads.

ICM Part 1

ICM Part 2

ICM Part 3

ICM Part 4

ICM Part 5

ICM Part 6

ICM Part 7

Filed under: Poker News